North of the divide, people earn less, die at least a year earlier on average and get a worse education for their children
Jonathan Leake and Kevin DowlingPublished: 15 August 2010
The north-south divide, Britain’s traditional social and economic barrier, is getting more stark — and it may be creeping further south.
Researchers have drawn the divide as a clear diagonal line bisecting the country from Gloucester, just south of the line, to Grimsby, at its northeastern end.
Analysis of data including average incomes, house prices, life expectancy and levels of education shows that the gap between the two regions has grown wider in the recession.
It had been expected that the banking crisis, with its devastating effect on the financial services industry, which is mostly concentrated in London and the southeast, would narrow regional differences.
Instead the government bailouts of banks — valued by some at £1.3 trillion — have greatly benefited the south as the money has trickled out into the wider economy.
G20 summit protesters have clashed with police after crowds flooded into central London as world leaders prepare to discuss the global economic meltdown.
Tens of thousands of people have marched through London demanding action on poverty, climate change and jobs, ahead of next week's G20 summit.
The Put People First alliance of 150 charities and unions walked from Embankment to Hyde Park for a rally.
Speakers called on G20 leaders to pursue a new kind of global justice.
Police estimate 35,000 marchers took part in the event. Its organisers say people wanted the chance to air their views peacefully.
Protesters described a "carnival-like atmosphere" with brass bands, piercing whistles and stereos blasting music as the slow-paced procession weaved through the streets.
Police said one man was arrested during the march for being drunk and disorderly.
Image caption For advanced economies manufacturing tends to become less important
A new study from the Brookings Institution argues that American prosperity is being driven by advanced industries. It raises the question as to whether de-industrialisation can be reversed.
It's a refrain that has been heard frequently in the US and the UK after the financial crisis: there's a desire to rebalance the economy away from banking and towards making things once again.
Made in America, Made in Britain, Designed in Britain are among the phrases heard from governments and businesses after the worst recession in a century.
De-industrialisation is when industry counts for less than services in the economy. When countries grow, they tend to industrialise, so they move out of agriculture and into manufacturing, which has higher productivity and wages.
Industrialisation, and indeed the Industrial Revolution, is how countries become middle class, and some become rich.
Inequality
But, for advanced economies, manufacturing starts to become less important as a share of output once they become prosperous. Business services, retail, and finance start to dominate, and workers move out of factories and into offices or stores.
This process is associated with a loss of good, blue collar jobs, increased inequality, and less innovation since most research goes into industrial production.
But, reversing de-industrialisation is challenging. Emerging economies like China can produce more cheaply and information and communications technology (ICT) has lowered the costs of logistics, so that globalisation makes it harder for rich nations to compete with lower cost producers.
In fact, Dani Rodrik of Harvard points to pre-mature de-industrialisation for some developing countries which are moving from agriculture to services, which holds worrying consequences for countries that have yet to gain a firm foothold in the middle income strata.
Recovery
So, can it be done?
According to the Brookings Institution, advanced industries - hi-tech manufacturing and skilled services - where one fifth of employees have STEM - science, technology, engineering and maths skills - have led the US recovery.
Advanced industries have grown 30% faster than GDP since 1980. Since the 2009 recession, they have added one million jobs. Even more remarkably, advanced services have created almost two thirds of all of the new jobs during the recovery.
In an era of slow wage growth, advanced industries also report earnings growth that is five times faster than the average for the US.
And they are a fast-growing part of the economy. Adding $2.7 trillion to GDP, advanced industries are the biggest part of the American economy, accounting for 17% of GDP - that's more than finance, health care, or real estate. These industries account for approximately one quarter of all US employment. Image caption Staying in the US makes more sense for manufacturers thanks to a raft of falling costs
Automation
But, manufacturing jobs are still about two million below their 2007 levels, according to the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation, and they attribute the resurgence to a rebound from the depths of the recession.
That was echoed by Matt Murray, director of the Center for Business and Economic Research at the University of Tennessee. He forecasts that manufacturing jobs will decline after 2017 and return to the long-term, downward trend. It's because of overseas competition but it is also due to automation, so that more output can be made with fewer workers.
That's consistent with the long-term trend where American industrial output has increased with some ups and downs since 1950 in absolute terms, but has shrunk as a share of GDP since services has grown relatively more quickly.
After all, the United States is the second largest manufacturer in the world with about $2trn in annual output, only losing its crown to China a few years ago.
But, manufacturing jobs have declined since 1980. After rising from 13 million in 1950 to peak at nearly 20 million in 1980, 2010 saw a drop to a historic low of about 11.5 million. So, the impressive rebound since then still takes employment to around 12.3 million, which is the lowest in the post-war period, lower than in 1950.
Growth
It's a similar pattern in the UK. Around 2.6 million people work in manufacturing, a figure that has halved since the late 1970s. Now, manufacturing accounts for 8% of jobs, down from a quarter of all jobs in 1978.
Manufacturing accounts for about 10% of national output, having dropped by about one third in the late 1970s. But, like the US, British manufacturing has grown in in absolute size over the past few decades.
Although hard hit in the last recession, Britain is still the seventh largest manufacturer in the world and the bulk of R&D spending, more than 70%, goes into the sector.
Compared with its share of GDP, manufacturing makes an outsized contribution to exports, accounting for nearly half of British exports. The UK still imports more manufactured goods than it exports, so there is a trade deficit.
But, the industries that sell overseas are also in advanced sectors, so technology, R&D and STEM workers constitute the new face of manufacturing too.
But, unlike the US, there hasn't been a rebound in manufacturing jobs in high-tech sectors like chemicals, pharmaceuticals, or automobiles. Only the aerospace industry has had some job growth since 2007.
Also, labour productivity, that is output per worker, is low. Britain ranks above the world average, but lags other countries like the US as well as Germany.
Middle class
I've written before about the lack of STEM workers being an impediment for UK employers who believe that it could be a brake on economic growth.
Plus, there are other favourable factors that have boosted US manufacturing such as the shale energy revolution that have lowered costs. So, even if wages in the US are higher than emerging markets, for car companies where labour costs are only 10% of the total, other costs falling in America makes re-shoring or bringing production back to the US look appealing. Besides, wages are rising in not just China but also other emerging economies that have joined the middle class in droves.
So, is it possible to reverse the trend of de-industrialisation?
Even if output grows, employment will likely face pressure from robotics and technology.
Plus, even with the resurgence in the US, manufacturing is unlikely to become the biggest part of the economy.
But, economic growth can be boosted by new engines, such as advanced industries.
There are signs that it is happening in the US. And there are lessons for Britain and other advanced economies looking to re-balance their drivers of economic growth.
Manufacturing contributes £6.7tr to the global economy. Contrary to common belief, UK manufacturing is strong with the UK currently the 11th largest manufacturing nation in the world. Manufacturing makes up 11% of UK GVA and 54% of UK exports and directly employs 2.6 million people.
Despite the decline since the 1970s, when manufacturing contributed 25% of UK GDP, the UK ranks second globally in aerospace manufacturing. In the half-year from January to June 2014, the UK-based car industry had its best year in new car sales in 9 years.
1.28 million new cars were sold during the period, a rise of 10% compared to the same period in 2013. While the chemical and pharmaceutical industries add £20m per day to the UK balance of trade. Underpinning these important statistics is an average annual productivity increase of 3.6% – two and a half times greater than the UK economy as a whole.
While the contribution of manufacturing to GDP has declined on paper, many of the services provided to manufacturers which would have once been considered part of manufacturing, such as catering, cleaning, building services, security etc, are now allocated into different areas of the economy. However, those contributions are directly reliant on manufacturing for continued business and could actually be considered as a part of manufacturing’s GDP input.
Rank
Country/Region
(Millions of $US)
Year
World
11,185,841
2011
1
China
2,330,684
2011
European Union
2,312,723
2013
2
United States
1,800,500
2011
Eurozone
1,793,895
2013
3
Japan
1,073,277
2012
4
Germany
710,951
2013
5
South Korea
370,393
2013
6
Italy
284,477
2013
7
Russia
266,692
2013
8
Brazil
250,149
2013
9
France
249,074
2013
10
India
223,138
2013
11
United Kingdom
219,036
2013
12
Mexico
215,689
2013
13
Indonesia
205,768
2013
14
Canada
169,120
2008
15
Spain
166,142
2013
16
Thailand
127,569
2013
17
Turkey
125,598
2013
18
Switzerland
113,481
2012
19
Australia
104,056
2013
20
Netherlands
91,602
2013
Countries by Manufacturing output using the most recent known data thanks to The World Bank and Wikipedia.
UK Balance of Trade
UK Manufacturing 2014 – The Facts
Every two years manufacturers’ organisation EEF publishes a fact card covering manufacturing GVA, employment, the % of manufacturing in the region’s economies, Britain’s place in the global manufacturing league table, R&D spending and more. EEF (The Manufacturers’ Organisation) Manufacturing Facts and Figures
Statistics by Sector
British Aerospace Industry
Beth Pickering, Airbus in the UK, Broughton
100,000+ direct jobs in UK Aerospace
ADS has over 850 members (from SMEs to globals)
Annual earnings = £24.2bn
Revenue: £12.4bn
75% of turnover to export markets
17% global market share
British Automotive Industry
A worker at the Jaguar Land Rover plant helps put together a Range Rover Evoque.
More than 550 UK members of SMMT
£6bn investment in past two years
2.6 million cars registered in the UK 2013
Two out of the top 10 selling cars for 2013, the Vauxhall Astra (4th) and the Nissan Qashqai (6th), are made in the UK, while the Ford Fiesta was the UK’s best selling car.
1.58m vehicles (81% exported) and 2.5m engines (62% exported) made in the UK last year
2,350 automotive suppliers in UK, employing 82,000 people
Typically £55bn annual turnover
£27bn revenue in 2011
720,000 employed across automotive industry, 140,000 directly employed in manufacturing
More than 75,000 young people employed as apprentices over the last 5 years. 18,000 in automotive retail at any one time
British Chemical Industry
The Baker Hughes Eco-Centre facility can process in excess of 30,000 tonnes (33,000 tons) of drill cuttings and 14,000 cubic meters (3.7 million gallons) of liquid waste, or slops, annually.
£60bn revenue in 2012
600,000 people are currently employed in the industry
Represents 15% of UK manufacturing GVA
Has an average employee cost of £42,000 per head
Added £20m to the UK balance of trade every day for the last twenty years
Spiral Construction are the UK’s leading manufacturer of spiral and helical staircases and have been nominated by Andrew George, Liberal Democrat MP for St Ives
1 in 14 of the UK workforce is employed in construction – nearly 2 million people
Provides 88,000 new job opportunities yearly
Employs just under 200,000 women in the sector
More than 35% of construction employees run their own companies
More than a quarter of employers have recruited a school leaver in the last 2-3 years
Nearly 50% of employers in the building services engineering industry take part in the modern apprenticeship scheme
British Defence Industry
BAE Systems Ambush submarine.
£35bn annual UK turnover
The UK is the world’s second biggest defence exporter behind the US
Employs 300,000 overall in the UK
9,000 defence companies including small businesses exist in the UK
BAE Systems – the UK’s largest defence company – currently employs 40,000 domestically
10% of UK manufacturing is made up by defence
British Electronics Industry
A British firm has made the world’s largest all-electric pipe bender.
Worth £78bn a year
Is the world’s fifth largest in terms of production
Employs over 850,000 people
This makes up 2.9% of the UK’s workforce
In semiconductors, almost 80% of the activity comes from foreign direct investment
The UK is home to 40% of Europe’s semiconductor design houses
British Food & Drink Industry
Cadbury Fingers in production.
Turnover of £76bn in 2012, the UK’s largest manufacturing sector
Accounts for 15% of all UK manufacturing GVA
Employs 400,000 workers domestically, 15% of manufacturing workforce
Exports over £12bn of food and non-alcoholic drink products a year, 77% of which go to the EU
Invested over £1bn in to R&D in 2011, resulting in over 8,500 new products
Businesses have reduced rate of injuries by over 50% over the last 20 years
A brief analysis of the UK's trade and foreign direct investment relationship with the EU
How large is the EU Economy?
Since its formation in 1993, the European Union1 (EU) has become larger than any individual economy in the world, with its GDP surpassing the USA’s in 2003, for the first time since 1998, as shown in Figure 1. Despite this, the EU’s share of global GDP has fallen from 30% in 1993 to 24% in 2013. This is because growth in non-EU economies has outpaced growth of EU economies, mainly driven by strong growth in the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) economies.
How important is the EU to UK trade?
The UK has traditionally had strong trade links with the EU. Despite changes in the composition of the global economy, the EU in 2014 accounted for 44.6% of UK exports of goods and services, and 53.2% of UK imports of goods and services. However, strong economic growth in many developing economies outside the EU has resulted in non-EU economies growing in importance to UK trade, with the proportion accounted for by the EU falling consistently since 1999, despite the value of EU trade increasing. Exports from the UK to EU and non-EU countries have grown on average by 3.6% and 6.5% respectively in each year between 1999 and 2014. However, the stronger export growth to non-EU countries has resulted in the proportion of UK exports destined for the EU falling from 54.8% in 1999 to 44.6% in 2014. Growth in the value of UK imports of goods and services from EU and non-EU countries is more comparable, growing on average by 4.7% and 5.5% respectively in each year since 1999. Faster growth in the value of UK imports compared to exports with the EU has resulted in the UK’s overall trade balance with the EU deteriorating (value of imports exceeding exports), with the trade deficit widening notably, reaching £61.6 billion in 2014 compared with £11.2 billion in 1999, as shown by the black dotted line in Figure 2. UK trade with the EU is dominated by goods rather than services; in 2014, trade in goods represented close to two-thirds of all UK exports to the EU, and over three-quarters of total UK imports from the EU. Between 1999 and 2014, goods imported by the UK from the EU have risen by 4.9% per year on average, compared to exports which have risen by 2.5% per year, causing the UK’s trade in goods deficit with the EU to rise to £77.0 billion. Although the UK has historically recorded a trade in goods deficit with the EU, its trade in services balance with the EU is much more favourable, running a surplus in each year since 2005, which reached £15.4 billion in 2014. UK exports of goods and services to non-EU countries have grown at a faster rate than imports, driven largely by services exports. This has resulted in the UK running an overall trade surplus with non-EU countries (value of exports exceeds imports) over the past three years, which reached £27.8 billion in 2014, as shown by the grey dotted line in Figure 2.
How important is the EU to UK foreign direct investment?
Between 2004 and 2013, the net stock of assets held by UK residents and businesses overseas grew by an average of 5.4% per annum, but this was outpaced by growth in the net stock of assets held by overseas residents and businesses in the UK, which rose by an average of 11.6% per annum. This resulted in the UK’s net position with the world – that is, UK net assets held overseas minus net overseas assets held in the UK – declining by an average of 15.9% per annum over the same period.
In to their respective pre-downturn peaks. More recently, EU earnings have risen since 2012 and surpassed their pre-downturn peak in 2013.
A history of the conflict and the slow progress towards peace
by Ann Marie Imbornoni, Borgna Brunner, and Beth Rowen
HISTORY OF THE PROBLEM: BRITAIN AND IRELAND
Political separation of Northern Ireland from the rest of Ireland did not come until the early 20th century, when Protestants and Catholics divided into two warring camps over the issue of Irish home rule.
The history of Northern Ireland can be traced back to the 17th century, when the English finally succeeded in subduing the island after successfully putting down a number of rebellions. (See Oliver Cromwell; Battle of the Boyne.) Much land, especially in the north, was subsequently colonized by Scottish and English Protestants, setting Ulster somewhat apart from the rest of Ireland, which was predominantly Catholic.
The Nineteenth Century
During the 1800s the north and south grew further apart due to economic differences. In the north the standard of living rose as industry and manufacturing flourished, while in the south the unequal distribution of land and resources—Anglican Protestants owned most of the land—resulted in a low standard of living for the large Catholic population.
The Twentieth Century
Political separation of Northern Ireland from the rest of Ireland did not come until the early 20th century, when Protestants and Catholics divided into two warring camps over the issue of Irish home rule. Most Irish Catholics desired complete independence from Britain, but Irish Protestants feared living in a country ruled by a Catholic majority.
Government of Ireland Act
In an attempt to pacify both factions, the British passed in 1920 the Government of Ireland Act, which divided Ireland into two separate political entities, each with some powers of self-government. The Act was accepted by Ulster Protestants and rejected by southern Catholics, who continued to demand total independence for a unified Ireland.
The Irish Free State and Northern Ireland
Following a period of guerrilla warfare between the nationalist Irish Republican Army (IRA) and British forces, a treaty was signed in 1921 creating the Irish Free State from 23 southern counties and 3 counties in Ulster. The other 6 counties of Ulster made up Northern Ireland, which remained part of the United Kingdom. In 1949 the Irish Free State became an independent republic.
"The Troubles"
Although armed hostilities between Catholics and Protestants largely subsided after the 1921 agreement, violence erupted again in the late 1960s; bloody riots broke out in Londonderry in 1968 and in Londonderry and Belfast in 1969. British troops were brought in to restore order, but the conflict intensified as the IRA and Protestant paramilitary groups carried out bombings and other acts of terrorism. This continuing conflict, which lingered into the 1990s, became known as "the Troubles." Despite efforts to bring about a resolution to the conflict during the 1970s and 80s, terrorist violence was still a problem in the early 90s and British troops remained in full force. More than 3,000 people have died as a result of the strife in Northern Ireland.
THE PEACE PROCESS
An Early Attempt
A serious attempt to bring about a resolution to the conflict was made in 1985 when British and Irish prime ministers Margaret Thatcher and Garrett Fitzgerald signed the Anglo-Irish Agreement, which recognized for the first time the Republic of Ireland's right to have a consultative role in the affairs of Northern Ireland. However, Protestant politicians who opposed the Agreement were able to block its implementation.
The IRA Declares a Cease-fire
Further talks between rival Catholic and Protestant officials and the British and Irish governments occurred during the early 1990s. Then, in late Aug. 1994 the peace process received a big boost when the pro-Catholic IRA announced a cease-fire. This made it possible for Sinn Fein, the political arm of the IRA, to participate in multiparty peace talks; hitherto Sinn Fein had been barred from such talks because of its association with the IRA and its terrorist tactics.
Sinn Fein Participates in Official Talks
On Dec. 9, 1994, the first officially sanctioned, publicly announced talks took place between Sinn Fein and British officials. Negotiators for Sinn Fein pushed for a British withdrawal from Northern Ireland; Great Britain countered that the IRA must give up its weapons before Sinn Fein would be allowed to negotiate on the same basis as other parties. The issue of IRA disarmament would continue to be a sticking point throughout the negotiations.
An Anglo-Irish Proposal for Peace
In late Feb. 1995, the British and Irish governments released their joint proposal for talks on the future of Northern Ireland. The talks were to be held in three phases involving the political parties of Northern Ireland, the Irish government, and the British government. The talks would focus on the establishment of a form of self-government for Northern Ireland and the formation of Irish-Northern Irish "cross-border" bodies that would be set up to oversee such domestic concerns as agriculture, tourism, and health. Results of the talks would be put to referendums in Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.
The U.S. Gets Involved
In Dec. 1995, former US senator George Mitchell was brought in to serve as mediator for the peace talks. His report issued in Jan. 1996 recommended the gradual disarmament of the IRA during the course of the talks, thus breaking the deadlock caused by the IRA's refusal to disarm.
Multiparty Talks Open in Belfast
On June 10, 1996, multiparty peace talks opened in Belfast. However, because of the breakdown of the IRA cease-fire the preceding Feb., Sinn Fein was turned away. Following the resumption of the cease-fire in July 1997, full-scale peace negotiations began in Belfast on Oct. 7, 1997. Great Britain attended as well as most of Northern Ireland's feuding political parties, including Sinn Fein and the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP), the largest Protestant political party in Northern Ireland. The more extreme Democratic Unionist Party and the tiny United Kingdom Unionist Party refused to join.
Click here for who's who in the Good Friday Agreement.
Good Friday Agreement
The historic talks finally resulted in the landmark Good Friday Agreement, which was signed by the main political parties on both sides on Apr. 10, 1998. The accord called for an elected assembly for Northern Ireland, a cross-party cabinet with devolved powers, and cross-border bodies to handle issues common to both the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland. Thus minority Catholics gained a share of the political power in Northern Ireland, and the Republic of Ireland a voice in Northern Irish affairs. In return Catholics were to relinquish the goal of a united Ireland unless the largely Protestant North voted in favor of it.
Real Hope for Peace
With the signing of the Good Friday Agreement, hope ran high that lasting peace was about to become a reality in Northern Ireland. In a dual referendum held on May 22, 1998, Northern Ireland approved the accord by a vote of 71% to 29%, and the Irish Republic by a vote of 94%. In June 1998, voters chose the 108 members of the Northern Ireland Assembly, the locally elected government. International recognition and support for peace in Northern Ireland came on Oct. 16, 1998, when the Nobel Peace Prize was awarded jointly to John Hume and David Trimble, the leaders of the largest Catholic and Protestant political parties, respectively, in Northern Ireland.
Hope Proves False
In June 1999, the peace process stalled when the IRA refused to disarm prior to the formation of Northern Ireland's new provincial cabinet. Sinn Fein insisted that the IRA would only give up weapons after the new government assembled; the Ulster Unionists, Northern Ireland's largest Protestant party, demanded disarmament first. Consequently the new government failed to form on schedule in July 1999, bring the entire process to a complete halt.
Sinn Fein, Over to You
At the end of Nov. 1999, David Trimble, leader of the Ulster Unionists, relented on the "no guns, no government" position and agreed to form a government before the IRA's disarmament. If the IRA did not begin to disarm by Jan. 31, 2000, however, the Ulster Unionists would withdraw from the parliament of Northern Ireland, shutting down the new government.
New Parliament Is Suspended
With this compromise in place, the new government was quickly formed, and on Dec. 2 the British government formally transferred governing powers over to the Northern Irish parliament. But by the deadline Sinn Fein had made little progress toward disarmament, and so on Feb. 12, 2000, the British government suspended the Northern Irish parliament and once again imposed direct rule.
A New Beginning
Throughout the spring, Irish, British, and American leaders continued to hold discussions to try to end the impasse. Then on May 6 the IRA announced that it would agree to put its arms "beyond use" under the supervision of international inspectors. Britain returned home rule powers to the Northern Ireland Assembly on May 30, just three days after the Ulster Unionist Party, Northern Ireland's largest Protestant Party, again voted in favor of a power-sharing arrangement with Sinn Fein. On June 26, 2000, international monitors Martti Ahtisaari of Finland and Cyril Ramaphosa of South Africa announced that they were satisfied that a substantial amount of IRA arms was safely stored and could not be used without detection. However, while the IRA did allow for the inspection of some of its arms dumps, the months limped by without any real progress on disarmament. Caught in the middle was David Trimble, who was accused by his fellow Protestants of making too many concessions to the Republicans. On Oct. 28, 2000, he was nearly ousted by his own party, a move that surely would have spelled the end for the Good Friday Agreement. But Trimble survived, pledging to get tough by imposing sanctions on Sinn Fein.
STALEMATE
Into 2001, Still No Major Progress
Through the first months of 2001, Catholics and Protestants remained at odds, especially over the establishment of a neutral police force in Northern Ireland and IRA disarmament. In early March 2001, the IRA unexpectedly initiated a new round of talks with Northern Ireland's disarmament commission, but no real progress was made.
Trimble Resigns
Shortly before Britain's general election on June 7, Northern Ireland's first minister David Trimble announced that he would resign on July 1 if the IRA did not start disarming. The announcement helped bolster his position among his constituents, and Trimble managed to hold on to his seat in the British Parliament. However, his pro-British Ulster Unionist Party fared badly overall. In the weeks that followed, the IRA took no steps to dismantle its arsenal, and Trimble resigned as planned.
Violence Renewed as Marching Season Begins
The fragile peace process faced another crisis in mid-June when sectarian violence broke out again in Belfast. The clashes began after a group of schoolgirls and their parents were stoned by Protestant youths as they left a Catholic primary school. In what was deemed the worst rioting in several years, rival mobs hurled gasoline bombs, stones, and bottles and set fire to cars. The violence coincided with the start of the annual "marching season" when Protestant groups commemorate past victories on the battlefield against the Catholics.
IRA's Offer to Disarm Rejected
On Aug. 6, 2001, the commission responsible for the disarming of paramilitary forces in Northern Ireland announced that the IRA had agreed to a method of permanently placing its weapons arsenal beyond use. Although the commission did not disclose any details or indicate when disarmament might begin, Britain and the Republic of Ireland hailed the plan as a historic breakthrough. Protestant leaders in Northern Ireland were less enthusiastic and rejected the proposal as falling too short of action. On Aug. 11, Britain's secretary of state for Northern Ireland, John Reid, suspended the power-sharing government for one day, a move that allowed Protestant and Catholic politicians six more weeks to negotiate before British authorities would be required to call for new elections to the assembly. (In the event of new elections, moderate David Trimble stood little chance of being reelected, since Protestants as well as Catholics have become increasingly opposed to the Good Friday Agreement.) The IRA withdrew its offer to disarm on Aug. 14, but veterans of the process were confident that the matter remained on the negotiating table.
Northern Ireland Government Suspended Again
With some small progress having been made on policing and arms decommissioning, Britain suspended the devolved government again on Sept. 22, creating another six-week window for the parties to resolve their differences. The move was criticized by UUP leader David Trimble, and on Oct. 18, the three remaining Ulster Unionist cabinet ministers resigned, in an attempt to force Britain to impose direct rule again indefinitely. However, on Oct. 23, the IRA announced that it had begun to disarm, and it appeared that the peace process had once again been rescued from the point of collapse. Guns and explosives at two arms dumps were put beyond use. Trimble regained his position as first minister in the power-sharing government in a vote rerun on Nov. 6, after narrowly losing his reelection bid in the initial vote a few days earlier. Mark Durkan, who succeeded John Hume as leader of the largely Catholic SDLP (Nov. 10), was elected deputy first minister.
IRA Scraps More Weapons
On April 8, 2002, international weapons inspectors announced that the IRA had put more stockpiled munitions beyond use. The move was welcomed by British and Irish leaders alike, who expressed the hope that Protestant guerilla groups would also begin to surrender their weapons. However, in mid-June British and Irish political leaders called for emergency talks to try to stem the rising tide of violence that had been ongoing in Belfast for several weeks. Police believed that the nightly outbreaks of firebombing and rioting were being organized by Protestant and Catholic paramilitary groups in direct violation of standing cease-fire agreements. The street disturbances continued into July, and a 19-year-old Catholic man was shot—the first death caused by sectarian violence since January.
IRA Members Arrested in Colombia
The call for talks also came hard on the heels of a BBC report concerning three IRA members who had been arrested in Aug. 2001, in Bogota, Colombia. According to the BBC, one of the men involved in the weapons activity was Brian Keenan, the IRA representative charged with disarming the guerilla group in Ireland. The three Irish guerillas were accused of testing new weaponry and teaching bomb-making techniques to Colombian rebels. They were scheduled to go on trial in Colombia in July. Also in July, during the annual Orange Order parade through Portadown, Northern Ireland, Protestant supporters of the Orangemen hurled stones and bricks to protest the ban on marching down Garvaghy Road, past a Catholic enclave in the town. Throughout Northern Ireland, members of the Orange Order march to celebrate the military victory of Protestant King William of Orange over the Catholics in 1690. Two dozen police officers were injured and several people were arrested.
IRA Apologizes for Deaths
On July 16, 2002, the IRA issued its first apology to the families of the 650 civilians killed by the IRA since the late 1960s. The apology was released several days before the 30th anniversary of the IRA's Bloody Friday attack on July 21, 1972, which left 9 people dead and some 130 injured. During the attack in Belfast, 22 bombs exploded during a period of only 75 minutes.
Trimble Threatens to Resign Again
In late Sept. 2002, First Minister David Trimble announced that he and other Unionist leaders would force the collapse of the Northern Ireland Assembly by resigning unless the IRA disbanded by Jan. 18, 2003. The ultimatum came under pressure from hard-line constituents within the Unionist Party, following a number of incidents (including the trial of IRA guerillas in Colombia on weapons-related charges) that pointed to continued IRA military activity.
Britain Suspends Home-Rule Government Again
By early October, the situation had deteriorated, with Trimble threatening immediate mass resignation unless the British threw Sinn Fein, the IRA's political wing, out of the Assembly. The discovery of an alleged I.R.A. spy operation within the Northern Ireland Assembly was the last straw. Britain's Northern Ireland secretary, John Reid, suspended the power-sharing government on Oct. 14, 2002. It was the fourth time the British government had had to take back political control of Northern Ireland since the Northern Ireland Assembly came into being in Dec. 1999. On Oct. 30, in response to the British move to impose direct rule again, the IRA suspended contact with the arms inspectors who were overseeing the disarmament of Northern Ireland's guerilla and paramilitary groups. The Council on Foreign relations has estimated that Protestant paramilitary groups have been responsible for 30% of the civilian deaths in the Northern Irish conflict. The two main Protestant vigilante groups are the Ulster Volunteer Force (UVF) and the Ulster Defence Association (UDA). Strongest during the 1970s, their ranks have diminished since then. While Protestant paramilitaries have observed a cease-fire since the IRA declared one, none of these groups has made any moves toward surrendering their weapons as stipulated by the Good Friday Accord.
Showdown in 2003
In March and April 2003, negotiations were again underway to reinstate the Northern Ireland assembly. But Sinn Fein's vague language, weakly pledging that its "strategies and disciplines will not be inconsistent with the Good Friday Agreement caused Tony Blair to challenge Sinn Fein to once and for all make a clear, unambiguous pledge to renounce paramilitary for political means." According to the New York Times (April 24, 2003), "virtually every newspaper in Britain and Ireland has editorialized in favor of full disarmament, and the Irish government, traditionally sympathetic to Sinn Fein, is almost as adamant about the matter as London is." In Nov. 2003 legislative elections, the Ulster Unionists and other moderates lost out to Northern Ireland's extremist parties: Ian Paisley's Democratic Unionists and Sinn Fein. The prospect of power-sharing between these antithetical parties looked dim.
Deadlocked in 2004
An effort to revive the deadlocked powersharing negotiations was broached in March 2004 by Tony Blair and Ireland's Bertie Ahern, who announced, "The elections were in November, this is March, we must move on." In Sept. 2004, another round of talks, aimed at ending the impasse, broke up with no significant progress. A $50 million bank robbery in Dec. 2004 was linked to the IRA, although Sinn Fein has denied the connection. Sinn Fein's growing acceptance as a political organization suffered a severe setback as a result, putting power-sharing negotiations on hold indefinitely. Evidence of the IRA's criminality as well as its continual refusal to give up its weapons has strained its relations not only in Northern Ireland and Britain but in the Republic of Ireland as well.
Violence and Vigilantism in 2005
The brutal murder on Jan. 31, 2005, of Belfast Catholic Robert McCartney by the IRA, and the campaign by his five sisters to hold the IRA accountable, further diminished the IRA's standing, even in Catholic communities that had once been IRA strongholds. The IRA's subsequent offer to kill the men responsible generated further outrage. Instead of inviting Northern Irish political parties to the White House—the custom for the past several years—the U.S. invited the McCartney sisters instead.
Real Hope in July 2005
On July 28, the IRA stated that it was entering a new era in which it would unequivocally renounce violence: The statement said that IRA members have been "instructed to assist the development of purely political and democratic programs through exclusively political means," and that "all I.R.A. units have been ordered to dump arms" and "to complete the process to verifiably put its arms beyond use."
Delays in 2006
In Feb. 2006, the Independent Monitoring Commission (IMC), a watchdog agency monitoring Northern Irish paramilitary groups, reported that although the IRA "seems to be moving in the right direction," dissident republican paramilitaries are still engaged in violence and crime. On May 15th, Northern Ireland's political parties were given six months (to Nov. 24) to come up with a power-sharing government or else sovereignty will be revert indefinitely to the British government. In October, a report by the Independent Monitoring Commission in Northern Ireland indicated that the IRA had definitively ceased all paramilitary activity and declared that "the IRA's campaign is over."
Milestone Meeting in 2007
Shortly after parliamentary elections in March 2007, Gerry Adams, the leader of Sinn Fein, and Rev. Ian Paisley, the head of the Democratic Unionist Party, met face to face for the first time and hashed out an agreement for a power-sharing government.
Former Enemies Resume Power-Sharing Government
Local government was restored to Northern Ireland in May 2007 as Rev. Ian Paisley, leader of the Democratic Unionists, and Martin McGuinness, of Sinn Fein, were sworn in as leader and deputy leader, respectively, of the Northern Ireland executive government, thus ending direct rule from London. "I believe we are starting on a road to bring us back to peace and prosperity," said Paisley. British prime minister Tony Blair praised the historic deal. "Look back, and we see centuries marked by conflict, hardship, even hatred among the people of these islands," he said. "Look forward, and we see the chance to shake off those heavy chains of history.” On Feb. 5, 2010, with the signing of the Hillsborough Castle Agreement, Gordon Brown of Britain and Brian Cowen, prime ministers of England and Ireland, respectively, created a breakthrough in the Northern Ireland peace process. According to the terms of the accord, Britain will hand over control of the six counties' police and justice system to Northern Ireland. The shift to local control of the courts, prosecution system, and police has been the most important and contentious of the issues plaguing the tenuous power-sharing government. The agreement passed its first test on March 9, when the Northern Ireland Assembly voted its support 88–17, setting the stage for the April 12 power transfer deadline. "For the first time, we can look forward to policing and justice powers being exercised by democratic institutions on a cross-community basis in Northern Ireland," Cowen said.
Twenty years on from the IRA's ceasefire, BBC News NI
looks at how life in Northern Ireland has changed.
On the left of this image is
the scene that followed when a 500lb IRA bomb exploded at Moore's of Coleraine
in 1992
Northern Ireland's towns and cities were regularly bombed by the IRA during
the Troubles. These two images show both the aftermath of bombs and how the
scenes look today.
This image shows the Ulster
Hall in Belfast following an IRA bomb in 1992 merged with how it looks in
2014
City centre 'ring of
steel'
During the Troubles, shoppers in Belfast had to pass through security gates
to enter Royal Avenue, one of the city's main shopping streets. Bags would often
be searched for explosives by police. The gates would be closed every evening at
6pm.
Royal Avenue in 2014: the
security gates are long gone
Security checkpoints
When the IRA put its weapons beyond use in 2005, moves began within weeks to
transform the security landscape. Work began to demolish watchtowers and bases,
and in August 2007 the British army's emergency operation in Northern Ireland came to an
end. Lasting 38 years, Operation Banner was the Army's longest continuous
campaign in its history.
Vehicles leaving Newry, County
Down towards the border would pass through a permanent checkpoint
The landscape has changed
dramatically, with checkpoints replaced by roads built to ease traffic
congestion
South Armagh was referred to by
many as "Bandit Country" because of its reputation for lawlessness. The
area, adjacent to the border with the Republic of Ireland, was considered so
dangerous that troops and police officers could not travel by road, and had to
be flown in and out by helicopter. For republicans, these bases were a blight on
the landscape, a symbol of everything they opposed, and they were repeatedly
targeted.
The picture on the left of
Forkhill RUC station was taken in 1978 following a mortar bomb attack. The
right-hand photo shows the same area in 2014
In 1990, Londonderry civilian army worker Patsy Gillespie was told to drive a
bomb to the checkpoint at Coshquin near the border, while his family was held
hostage. The bomb was detonated by remote control, killing Mr Gillespie and five
soldiers. A memorial marks the spot where it happened.
This photograph was taken after
the bombing at the Coshquin checkpoint
Police stations were frequent
IRA targets
The aftermath of a bomb at
Fivemiletown police station in County Tyrone in 1992
The police station in
Fivemiletown closed in 2008, and a security firm is now based on the site
More than 300 police officers were killed during the Troubles, the vast
majority by the IRA, and more than 11,000 others were injured. One of the most
dramatic changes over the past 20 years has been in policing. The Royal Ulster
Constabulary (RUC) is gone, most republicans now support the police, and more
than 30% of the new Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI) are Catholics.
Sion Mills police station in
County Tyrone was badly damaged by a bomb in 1983
Houses have been built on the
site of the old Sion Mills police station
Bomb damage and
regeneration
Many towns across Northern Ireland were bombed by the IRA during the
Troubles.
The top photograph, taken in
1978, shows the aftermath of a car bomb that exploded in Scotch Street,
Dungannon. The bottom photo shows the same street in the County Tyrone town in
2014
This was the scene when a
1,000lb bomb exploded at the courthouse in Banbridge, County Down, in 1991
This is how the area looks in
2014
In 1981, a bomb near Belfast
City Hall caused extensive damage to nearby buildings
This is how the same area looks
today
Buildings in Belfast's High
Street were severely damaged by a 500lb bomb in 1992
A tourist coach parked in the
same spot where the bomb exploded shows how far the city has come
On the left of this image is
the scene that followed when a 500lb IRA bomb exploded at Moore's of Coleraine
in 1992 
This image shows the Ulster
Hall in Belfast following an IRA bomb in 1992 merged with how it looks in
2014 
Royal Avenue in 2014: the
security gates are long gone 
Vehicles leaving Newry, County
Down towards the border would pass through a permanent checkpoint 
The landscape has changed
dramatically, with checkpoints replaced by roads built to ease traffic
congestion 
The picture on the left of
Forkhill RUC station was taken in 1978 following a mortar bomb attack. The
right-hand photo shows the same area in 2014 
This photograph was taken after
the bombing at the Coshquin checkpoint 
The aftermath of a bomb at
Fivemiletown police station in County Tyrone in 1992 
The police station in
Fivemiletown closed in 2008, and a security firm is now based on the site
Sion Mills police station in
County Tyrone was badly damaged by a bomb in 1983 
Houses have been built on the
site of the old Sion Mills police station 
The top photograph, taken in
1978, shows the aftermath of a car bomb that exploded in Scotch Street,
Dungannon. The bottom photo shows the same street in the County Tyrone town in
2014 
This was the scene when a
1,000lb bomb exploded at the courthouse in Banbridge, County Down, in 1991
This is how the area looks in
2014 
In 1981, a bomb near Belfast
City Hall caused extensive damage to nearby buildings 
This is how the same area looks
today 
Buildings in Belfast's High
Street were severely damaged by a 500lb bomb in 1992 
A tourist coach parked in the
same spot where the bomb exploded shows how far the city has come 